Kuwait's population is expected to grow at a much slower rate in the next 20 years, involving both the nationals and expatriates, a key Kuwaiti bank said.
From only around 500,000 in 1965, the Gulf emirate's population has surged by nearly 4.7 per cent a year, with foreigners accounting for more than two thirds of the increase, the National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) said in a study.
Despite a massive outflow of expatriates during the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, their share of the total population grew to around 68 per cent currently from around 64 per cent in 1964, the report said.
"The total size of Kuwait's population will rise to 5.4 million by mid-2029, growing at an average rate of 2.2 per cent per year. Under these assumptions, the share of expatriates in the population nudges down from 68.4 now to 67.5 per cent."
"In summary, the demographic outlook for Kuwait seems bright. But it is important to stress that challenges will arise especially when economies are not, or not yet, very diversified."
The study expected slower growth to affect both the indigenous and foreign population in the emirate, one of the wealthiest nations with an oil production of nearly 2.5 million bpd and around 10 per cent of the world's crude resources.
The report cited several factors for the assumed slowdown in growth in the native population, including a decline in birth and fertility rates because of social influences including the rise in the number of women in the labour force.
"Death rates will rise slightly, mainly as a result of the growing proportion of elderly people in the population," the study said.
"Net migration rates are assumed to remain more or less unchanged, with no material change to the policy of limited naturalisation. As a result of these factors, growth in the population of Kuwaitis is likely to slow to an average of 2.3 per cent per year during 2009-2029, down from 4.4 per cent during 1965-2009."
It noted that although much slower than in previous decades, the rate is still high in comparison to growth in other countries.
Globally, annual population growth is expected to be less than per cent over the coming two decades, the study said, adding that in some countries, notably parts of Europe and Japan, populations are expected to fall outright.
"At this growth rate, the population of Kuwaitis will reach 1.7 million by 2029, up from one million at present," the study said.
As for the dominant expatriate community, the report said growth would be linked to the volume of employment opportunities, which will at least partly be driven by the rate of economic growth in the emirate.
"Again, this is difficult to predict, but there are good reasons to believe that – for a given rate of overall employment growth – growth in the number of expatriates will slow in future," it said.